Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 18.443340 21.355677 24.510389 28.172998 32.299329 36.795155 42.054886
2024-12-15 14.160976 18.263527 23.119483 29.249840 36.737347 45.537157 56.609712
2024-12-22 10.878909 15.439495 21.272724 29.182553 39.515904 52.432980 69.658512
2024-12-29 9.180529 14.143286 20.921239 30.673119 44.128675 61.796703 86.456914
2025-01-05 7.665440 12.736344 20.088032 31.240743 47.386472 69.508961 101.612496
2025-01-12 6.393508 11.406158 19.088473 31.321777 49.815816 76.133914 115.656118
2025-01-19 5.401703 10.305128 18.219547 31.396506 52.114399 82.613633 129.825070
2025-01-26 5.014236 10.119676 18.722579 33.578726 57.691508 94.166645 152.006572
2025-02-02 4.542604 9.694413 18.750823 34.955468 62.073915 104.172593 172.470466
2025-02-09 4.122036 9.282899 18.729249 36.207629 66.305604 114.164846 193.454800
2025-02-16 3.584593 8.545991 18.020821 36.172745 68.362727 120.816963 209.586519
2025-02-23 3.022024 7.650389 16.889074 35.235092 68.759623 124.758570 221.572962
2025-03-02 2.531444 6.827605 15.808936 34.316865 69.189500 128.920430 234.430000
2025-03-09 2.228059 6.366915 15.388268 34.603614 71.803020 136.936540 254.163119
2025-03-16 1.904678 5.789570 14.639664 34.153557 73.005856 142.589610 270.243987
2025-03-23 1.779182 5.679421 14.877917 35.712535 78.100954 155.343181 299.125042
2025-03-30 1.599862 5.388726 14.667811 36.302389 81.347355 164.953634 322.995134
2025-04-06 1.410684 5.027665 14.240661 36.372618 83.556120 172.784589 344.100576
2025-04-13 1.246536 4.699259 13.840551 36.449194 85.763983 180.713390 365.747246
2025-04-20 1.221947 4.787621 14.479760 38.926904 93.076350 198.591722 406.260605
2025-04-27 1.152651 4.720545 14.714164 40.489314 98.574792 213.290866 441.576615
2025-05-04 1.081963 4.633207 14.883154 41.910088 103.863087 227.842215 477.243311
2025-05-11 0.959957 4.341394 14.462932 41.870297 105.987804 236.327439 501.903165